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Perspectives of the photovoltaic (2017-2021). European market.

21 September 2017

Forecasts made by Solar Power Europe for the market of our continent in the next five years.

Complementing the previous article referring to the Global Market, we will examine the forecasts made by Solar Power Europe for the market of our continent in the next five years, as far as FTV energy is concerned.
 
Some of the calculations for this immediate future are the following:

  • It is very likely that starting in 2017, a new growth cycle will begin for solar energy in Europe.
  • In 2017, forecasts for the European market for photovoltaic energy indicate an increase of 8.8 GW.
  • The medium scenario expects a strong 31% growth in 2017 that will be flattened over the next few years, with annual installations increasing to 15.7 GW by 2021. See chart below.

EUROPEAN ANNUAL SOLAR PV MARKET SCENARIOS 2017-2021

Solar Power Europe 2017.

The following graph shows the growth rates expected for each of the European countries.

Ireland has the highest annual growth rate (187%), to reach the 3,216 MW expected in 2021 from 17 MW in 2017.

The growing role of the countries of the East, referred to shortly after, can be seen in the chart, represented by the growth of Russia (75%) and Poland (66%).
Logically, the countries that have already reached the highest levels of cumulative power, those with lower growth rates, such as Germany, Italy or the United Kingdom (UK).

  PV CUMULATIVE (MW) 2016 COMPOUND ANNUAL 2017-2021 GROWTH RATE % PV CUMULATIVE (MW) SCENARIO MEDIUM 2021
Ireland 17 187 % 3.323
Rusia 94 75 % 1.559
Poland 182 66 % 2.262
Turkey 820 55 % 7.380
Sweeden 182 46 %  1.217
Netherland 1.911 32 % 7.691
Austria 1.077 26 % 3.377
France 7.134 16 % 15.229
Switzerland 1.681 15 %  3.367
Rest of Europe 8.060 12 % 14.289
UK 11.547 7 % 15.822
Greece 2.611 7 %  3.650
Belgium 3.423 6 % 4.503
Germany 41.111 5 % 53.611
Spain 5.491 4 % 6.771
Italy 18.983 3 % 22.525

Fuente: Solar Power Europe 2017.

ENERGY PV 2017-2021 COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATE %

Elaboración propia con datos de Solar Power Europe 2017.

Las capacidades de adición (instalación anual) que se esperan para los países europeos durante el año 2021, con sus respectivas cuotas de participación, generan el siguiente Top 10 según Solar Power Europe:

CAPACITY ADDITIONS AND SHARES OF TOP 10 EUROPEAN SOLAR PV MARKETS IN 2021

Solar Power Europe 2017.

There are several reasons for this next phase of solar energy growth in Europe:

 LOW COST:

Solar energy is already much cheaper than retail electricity in most of today's European markets and will continue to decrease in cost.

  •  EU governments, within the framework of the EU 2020 targets, are realizing that solar technology is a very popular and low-cost resource for increasing renewable energy.
  • The low cost of solar energy is attracting European countries, not very active until now in this field, such as BELARUS or RUSSIA.
  • The current cheap solar energy is increasingly able to outperform other renewable energies in open tech support programs.

TENDERING:

auction instruments or public tenders have been adopted by several European countries, replacing traditional feed-in tariffs.

  • FRANCE has recently announced and has already started a massive solar tender program for the coming years.

  • TURKEY has just awarded a tender of 3 GW.

  • SPAIN has announced a tender for renewable energy for this year, according to this Solar Power Europe report.
    In 2016 and 2017 the Ministry of Energy, Tourism and Digital Agenda held three auctions of renewable energy in which have been awarded 8,037 megawatts of new power, of which 4,107 megawatts
    corresponded to wind power and 3,910 megawatts to solar photovoltaic.

  • In GERMANY the pilot bidding program started in 2015 became a regular program.

    In other European markets, where solar development has been halted by the end of food tariffs, direct bilateral PPPs will compete with wholesale energy markets.

    REGULATION: The European Commission and national governments have begun to address the needs of a flexible renewable energy system, working on a new design of the electricity market and implementing new tools and regulations to overcome the barriers that have inhibited possibilities of solar growth in recent years.

    The mode of growth of solar energy in Europe will depend entirely on policy makers in Brussels and European countries.

CONCLUSIONS

  • The differential between our high and low scenarios is very large for the next five years and with increasing time.
  • According to Solar Power Europe the high scenario would require the elimination of any commercial barriers, as in Turkey or the EU. If the EC Clean Energy Proposal for All Europeans is quickly approved with slight improvements, including a higher target for renewable energy by 2030, as requested by Solar Power Europe, these measures could even boost the European market to an annual level of more than 27 GW in 2021.
  • On the other hand, if the bulk of European governments completely disregard the potential of solar energy and the benefits to its citizens, the low scenario could become a reality, resulting in annual additions of just 8.1 GW in 2021. See graph first.
  • The need for common policies to promote renewable energy throughout Europe is latent.

 

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